I got asked the other day when I think the next bull run will be. What an excellent question.
Let’s dive in.
That’s when it will be! 2025. Now I’ll tell you why but bear in mind this is what I THINK although it is based on some solid ideas and data.
Crypto follows cycles and cycles are affected by many things, not least world events. In a normal cycle for BTC we would see an ATH and then a massive sell-off to the low side (that catches Plan B and all the YouTubers out) and then trading sides for two years until the next halvening. About 6 months after the halvening off we go again in the next bull run.
Nice and predictable. In fact, it was so predictable Plan Baligned it with Stock to flow.
Let’s take a look at his chart now.
Oh, dear. I did hear that Plan B is now on Plan F but either way we have divergence from his STF model as you can see. Interestingly he does show an uptick just after the May halvening which is what I would normally expect to see.
The problem we have this time is in the wider economy nothing is normal even though it was planned!
We have had a pandemic (which appears to have now been planned).
We have had massive money printing (planned)
We have tons of debt (planned) and we have an unstable (more than normal) world political situation with the war in Ukraine and the fact that NATO and the US are in a proxy war with Russia.
Yeah not much normal going on in the world. Oh yes, and as a consequence, we also have a man-made energy crisis in Europe because of the ludicrously stupid energy policies and net zero nonsense of the past few years. Did I mention Crypto regulations also? The US might make some draconian ones that affect US citizens and of course as a consequence of the wider crypto community.
Welcome to planet earth. We do hope you enjoy your stay.
Add all this up and we are going to have a recession and inflation (we already have). As a consequence of all of this turmoil over the next couple of years at least the last thing that people (Retail) will be doing is thinking about buying crypto. What they will be thinking about is how to pay their gas bill or fill up their car and whether they are going to get fired from their job as business naturally contracts.
So normally I would expect the next bull to run to kick off around 4 to 6 months after the next BTC halvening which is in May of 2024. I still think this is on the cards but it will be affected by how these other factors have played out . People will not be rushing into buying crypto if the recession lasts into 2024 because recessions make people tight with their money not frivolous.
I do so like a good chart but I prefer looking at what people are thinking and not what happened in the past. Let’s look at what people think about Crypto at the moment.
This is the Google search trend for Cryptocurrency over the past 5 years. Not looking good, is it? It’s looking how I expect to be honest.
This is the Google search trend for Bitcoin over the past 5 years. This is Retail, as in real people en masse and it is important because it’s Retail that drives bull runs and FOMO. See the trend? Yeah, it’s down, heading down and will keep heading in that direction. Bitcoin has a trend score of just 12 at the moment which is not very popular at all.
Let’s look at Google’s idea of how to interpret this data bearing in mind Bitcoin has a score of 12.
Regardless of what YouTubers are telling you or what you are hearing in your own little Crypto echo chambers the overall sentiment in Retail (The People that drive bull runs) for Crypto and Bitcoin is very low and getting lower all the time.
Bitcoin’s peak popularity was in 2017! This decline will continue and we might even see a sub $10,000 BTC as the recession bites because the retail that is left holding any crypto will sell it to pay bills. I hope we do see BTC sub 10k because that will present me and you with a great opportunity to buy some more whole Bitcoins at bargain basement prices in readiness for the 2025 Crypto Bull Run :).
Let’s look at Defi
Better than Bitcoin at 39 but also heading downward. Want to see Drip?
A slight green shoot of uptick which I am very pleased to see. This might be the result of Forex marketing for V2 but hard to tell how this interest is related to investment.
Much will be made of this event, especially by Youtubers and maybe even me :).
Let’s face it, it is very hard to keep creating content when you’re in a bear market with recession and job losses. Well unless you’re like me and brave enough to criticize the endless hopium of course. As much as I really do enjoy Crypto Kingz, if I have to sit through another of his Drip is gonna moon when X happens videos ill probably curl up in the corner and weep. Only joking. I am a subscriber of his and do enjoy his boundless optimism and I applaud him for being brave enough to get out there and create.
It is especially hard to be upbeat in content creation when a recession lasts years and not months! I would hate to be AltCoin daily LOL. People still might buy the news of the halvening and sell the event though and it might turn out to be a false flag event and not kick off the next run. I expect that if the recession is still biting the bull run will sputter and not get going properly.
Oh, it will be hyped of that you can be assured but remember that it is not Youtubers that drive bull runs it is Retail. Listen to Youtubers by all means but watch Google trends. Google search trends will give you the best idea of Peoples sentiment and if it is showing green shoots of optimism or not.
Yes, yes, yes and thrice yes. All of the above is Super positive news for you. You make money, big money in crypto during this time. The longer this time lasts the more money you will make. How?
- You consistently DCA into your favorite coins and projects each month. (I’m going to do an article on what mine are)
- You build your portfolio out with confidence.
- You buy while others sell-off.
- You do the exact opposite of the madding crowd.
- You remember and fully grasp that the longer the bear market lasts the larger the next bull run will be!
- You understand that recessions and inflation are planned.
That’s how you position yourself to be ready for the 2025 Crypto Bull Run and because you have not followed the crowd when the bull run happens, like me, you’ll be sitting on a large portfolio of diverse tokens and projects and like me, you ‘ll hit the jackpot. The great unwashed will do what they normally do, FOMO in on the rise like the sheep they are.
You will know when we are getting ready for the next run because you will see it in Google trends. Keep an eye on it.
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